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In the stages of change model, John's lack of belief that he will develop lung cancer from smoking indicates that he is in the precontemplation stage. This stage is characterized by individuals who are not yet considering change and may be unaware of the health risks associated with their current behaviors.

People in the precontemplation stage often do not recognize that they have a problem or do not see the negative impact of their actions. Since John does not acknowledge the potential consequences of smoking, such as the risk of lung cancer, he is not contemplating making any changes to his behavior.

As individuals progress through the stages, they move from precontemplation to contemplation, where they begin to recognize the need for change, and then into preparation and action stages when they actively plan and make changes to their behavior. John’s current mindset suggests he remains unaware or unconcerned about the need to quit smoking, which aligns with the precontemplation stage.